The opening of the ninth parliamentary session gave a start to the new political season in Ukraine. Despite the fact that the trust of citizens to the Verkhovna Rada remains critically low, it is exactly the parliament that has to vote for the reforms and to adopt the budget, which directly influences the welfare of people. What does Ukraine have in the beginning of this last pre-election autumn – what tasks and what risks? In my opinion, the key task for the Verkhovna Rada is to develop immunity to populism and to work with the agenda that is really important for people. Very many Ukrainian politicians have lost the connection with the reality and focus public attention on the insignificant or untimely issues paying less attention to the really significant problems. The latest research made by the Rating Group shows that the majority of Ukrainians are concerned with the rise in prices (65%) and the Donbas conflict (30%). The task for reasonable forces in the parliament is to bring the political agenda to conformity with the real needs of people. This means that the welfare of citizens and peace in Ukraine must become the key priorities in the work of the Verkhovna Rada.
The rest is secondary. For example, one of the already announced top topics of this autumn is the consideration of the Electoral Code in the second reading. Five thousand amendments of parliamentarians could made the bill barely recognizable, and no one is going to say clearly what is the essence of the offered electoral reform. The authors of the Code initially stated that it was planned to eliminate the plurality voting component at the parliamentary elections. Although Ukrainians themselves – and it was confirmed by sociology – do not want the proportional representation alone to return, when a voter does not understand who is his deputy and who he or she can address to in order to solve the problems. I do not understand how the change of the voting system can restore the peace and improve the welfare of people. This means that it is someone’s another attempt to rewrite the rules of game for their benefit before the elections, and not the real need of Ukrainian society. Some topics aroused by politicians today not only fail to meet the real needs of Ukrainians, but also split the society. The election campaign started in Ukraine de facto, and we hear more and more often the statements, which form new outlines for Ukraine’s split – on the grounds of native language, faith, attitude to history, geopolitical preferences. The divide-and-rule technology that is as old as time aggravates public conflicts and creates false agenda diverting us from the really important things.
What will the gas price for the population be during the heating period? What will the currency exchange rates be by the New Year? How many Ukrainians will leave the country without waiting for the elections and without taking care of all the politicians? I think that the most important law that the Parliament must consider this autumn is the budget. It is necessary to find a balance between the social orientation and economic validity of the draft. The authorities will probably try to soften the electors by increasing minimum wages and pensions. But the increase in social standards should be supported by economic growth. Otherwise, inflation will completely “eat” all of those increases. It is not normal when the entrepreneurs pay for the promotion of the authorities. They face new fines and increased tax burden. Ukraine just cannot afford the populist budget policy. In July, we saw the consequences of the Pension Fund deficit. That is why I consider that the extremely important task for the “statists” in the Parliament is to cool down the heat of the populists. Ahead is two years of elections – presidential, parliamentary, local – but we have no right to turn them into the race of promises and bury the country into the debt pit deeper. Three main threats of the new political seasons are populism, society’s split and political extremism. Pre-election “war of everyone against everyone” supposes the regular disclosure of discrediting evidences, provocations, hate speech. As a result, the devaluation of politics happens. Ukrainians do not trust courts, authorities, parties now. But the dirty election campaign may cause the reduction of legitimacy of the results of the future elections. There is a risk that the electoral policy will be replaced by the street one, and the thin line between peaceful protest and armed conflict may be erased. The electoral outsiders, realizing the absence of voters’ support, may choose the scenario of force, and it is extremely important for the state to cope with its part of the guarantor of order, rule of law and safety of Ukrainians. On June 20, we saw how the “street politics” in its worst displays caused the tragedy in Kharkiv City Council. Unfortunately, this destabilization vector and the “policy of force” may become a trend of the political season, and we will return to the situation of 2014. Who and how will be able to use this instability is an open question, but it is absolutely clear that it will be used not in the interests of Ukraine and Ukrainians. In any case, I hope very much that there will be a critical mass of people in Ukrainian politics, who are not infected with this fever of presidential elections and are able to defend the interests of the state and their electors.
