The holidays ended for Ukrainian politics, and it prepares new surprises to the citizens. The increase of the retirement age, ‘shadow mobilization’ for the graduates of military departments, twofold increase in taxes for private entrepreneurs, another currency crash, increase in prices…
The new political season has already started to disappoint Ukrainians, or to remove the remains of the illusory fascination experienced by many people during the recent years. The process is painful, but it is needed for the society’s recovery. I’ll try to predict three key illusions Ukrainians will say goodbye to the in new political season.
1. Geopolitics is pragmatic, and the world doesn’t revolve around Ukraine.
During three years, the authorities used the idea that we are the bastion of European civilization and that the whole world admires our heroism with bated breath as a satisfaction for all internal and foreign failures.
However, the rhetoric and actions of our western partners often differed from this ‘legend for internal use only.’ Moreover, new administration will come to power in the USA, Germany and France in 2017, and their position towards Ukraine and, in particular, our government, may be less loyal.
It is no surprise that Ukrainian authorities have already started to search for alternate routes and try to establish contacts with China. These steps are not the most appropriate, especially before the inauguration of Donald Trump, who has difficult relations with Beijing, but there is logic in them. One may speak ironically that Ukrainians will be led to Europe during 40 years through China, but in fact, only by balancing between policy-makers, Ukraine will be able to carry on the policy of state interest.
The art of balancing, this ‘splits of agency,’ which was forgotten during the recent years, allowed Ukraine not only to survive, but also to develop. But when the authorities focused on one geopolitical pole and turned on the colonial logic, crisis began.
2. “New faces,” “fair corruption fighters,” “patriotically-minded politicians” will not save Ukraine.
As the saying goes, don’t judge a book by its cover. During three years, politicians demonstrated their patriotism, which has nothing in common with the true love of the native land and the real help to the country. After they became the members of the parliament, all they performed was the witch hunt, declaration of their opponents to be ‘public enemies,’ mastering of old schemes. And it appeared that it is the most incompetent convocation of the Verkhovna Rada in the history of independent Ukraine.
At the same time, the class of bold young people, calling themselves ‘corruption fighters’ came to power. There were no altruism and volunteering in their activity, and it appeared that the mask of ‘public organization’ covered the commercial project oriented at making profit using the painful topic of corruption. Given the announced reduction of American grants, the ‘anti-corruption trend’ will gradually fizzle out. However, everything is all right for those who were in time to ride the wave.
I wish professionalism, competence and real deeds to become the new public demand. Ukraine, as never before, needs the constructive policy instead of labeling people as the best ‘patriots,’ ‘corruption fighters,’ or ‘new politicians.’
3. We should rely only on ourselves.
The legacy of Soviet mentality has both advantages and disadvantages. As I understand it, one of the main disadvantages is the paternalistic faith in the state, which will solve all problems of a citizen. Unfortunately, Ukrainians have failed time and again in these games with the state.
At certain intervals, our people lose all their savings. This happened in 1991, this happened with everyone who kept their money in national currency in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2014. Banking failure, constant increase in prices, currency crash, taxes… ‘The increase of minimum wages’ in 2017 is another lesson that ‘casino always wins.’
This year, according to the demand of IMF, the authorities will open the access for fiscal services to bank accounts in order to assess the incomes of citizens, and will launch the Single register of social payments. There will be definitely an attempt to minimize the number of citizens obtaining subsidies. I hope that all these unpopular measures will decrease the share of Ukrainians who connect the solution of their problems with the state.
The new political season will be very difficult and ‘hot.’ I wish the economic growth to become the main priority, as it is just impossible to improve living standards without it. It is not proper solution to try to fill the gaps in the budget at the expense of ‘special confiscation,’ new loans and expected fines. Many disappointments are waiting for us in the future, but I believe they will become the guarantee of future successes of Ukraine.
